The Pi Network’s native token, PI, has shown renewed momentum as of Friday, September 12, 2025, climbing over 3% after a week-long consolidation phase. This upward movement has sparked speculation about a potential breakout from its current trading channel—a technical development that could pave the way for further gains. However, underlying market dynamics suggest that caution remains warranted, as retail demand appears to be weakening despite the price uptick.
Technical Outlook: Channel Compression and Breakout Potential
PI’s recent price action reflects a tightening range within a descending channel, with resistance levels hovering near $0.38 and support forming around $0.33. This compression has created a setup where volatility expansion is likely, and traders are closely watching for confirmation of a breakout. A decisive move above the $0.38 resistance could signal bullish control, potentially opening the path toward $0.40 and beyond.
However, technical indicators remain mixed. The token continues to trade below its short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), with the 20 EMA at $0.359 and the 50 EMA at $0.363 acting as immediate barriers. Until these levels are reclaimed, bullish conviction may remain fragile. Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are narrowing, a classic precursor to a breakout, but price action remains near the lower band, suggesting hesitation among buyers.
Market Sentiment: Retail Demand Shows Signs of Fatigue
Despite the price rebound, on-chain data reveals a concerning trend: a surge in centralized exchange (CEX) wallet balances. Over the past 24 hours, CEX reserves have increased by approximately 2.01 million PI tokens. This uptick in exchange-held assets typically signals a rise in user deposits, which often correlates with declining investor confidence and reduced buying pressure.
The increase in CEX reserves suggests that retail investors may be moving their holdings back onto exchanges, possibly in anticipation of selling or due to uncertainty about future price movements. This behavior contrasts with accumulation patterns, where tokens are withdrawn from exchanges and stored in private wallets, indicating long-term holding sentiment.
Whale Activity and Institutional Signals
Interestingly, while retail sentiment appears cautious, some large holders—often referred to as “whales”—have continued to accumulate PI. Earlier this week, a notable wallet withdrew over 3.7 million PI tokens from a major exchange, bringing its total holdings to more than 370 million tokens. Such movements may reflect strategic positioning ahead of a potential breakout, but they also underscore the divergence between institutional and retail behavior.
Broader Context: Supply Dynamics and Long-Term Outlook
PI’s circulating supply remains relatively low compared to its maximum total supply of 100 billion tokens. With only about 8% currently in circulation, future supply releases could significantly impact price stability and investor sentiment. The token’s all-time high of $2.98, reached in February 2025, remains a distant memory, and the current price near $0.345 reflects a steep decline from peak levels.
Technical analysis based on Wyckoff theory suggests that PI may be in an accumulation phase, characterized by low-volume consolidation. If this phase holds, it could precede a markup cycle where prices rise sharply. However, confirmation of this pattern requires sustained buying interest and a clear breakout above key resistance zones.
A Pivotal Moment for PI
The Pi Network’s PI token stands at a critical juncture. While recent price gains and technical setups hint at a possible breakout, the surge in CEX reserves and muted retail demand temper expectations. Traders and investors should monitor short-term resistance levels, exchange flows, and whale activity closely to gauge the strength of any upcoming move.
If PI can reclaim the $0.36–$0.38 range and sustain momentum above its moving averages, the path toward $0.40 may become viable. Conversely, failure to break out could invite renewed selling pressure, dragging the token back toward its support zone near $0.33—or even lower.
As always, market participants are advised to approach with caution, balancing technical signals with broader sentiment and supply dynamics.