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Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward to 2.4%, citing stronger‑than‑expected recoveries in Asia and parts of Europe. However, the U.S. economy is showing early signs of deceleration, raising questions about the sustainability of global momentum.

📊 Drivers of Global Growth

• Asia’s resilience: Robust consumer spending in China and India is offsetting weaker export demand.

• Europe’s rebound: Targeted fiscal stimulus and easing energy prices are supporting industrial output.

• Emerging markets: Commodity exporters are benefiting from stable demand and improved trade balances.

🇺🇸 U.S. Economic Headwinds

In contrast, the U.S. is grappling with slowing job growth, cooling consumer confidence, and tighter credit conditions. Higher borrowing costs are weighing on housing and business investment, while manufacturing output remains subdued.

🔄 Interconnected Risks

Global growth could still face headwinds from geopolitical tensions, volatile energy markets, and climate‑related disruptions. For the U.S., the challenge will be to navigate a soft landing without triggering a broader slowdown that could spill over into global markets.

The improved global outlook offers cautious optimism, but the divergence between U.S. and international growth trajectories underscores the fragility of the recovery. Policymakers will need to balance inflation control with measures that sustain economic momentum.