.webp)
Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward to 2.4%, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the second quarter across key regions including China, the eurozone, and the United States. However, beneath the surface of this modest optimism lies a growing concern: the U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowing down.
Recent data reveals a decline in consumer spending, a softening labor market, and reduced private investment. Analysts now expect U.S. GDP growth to fall below 1.3% in the second half of the year, a sharp drop from the robust expansion seen earlier. This deceleration is prompting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, aimed at stabilizing demand and preventing a deeper downturn.
One major factor contributing to the slowdown is the sharp increase in import tariffs introduced earlier this year. The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has surged to 16%, significantly raising costs for manufacturers and consumers. While large corporations have absorbed some of the impact, smaller businesses and households are beginning to feel the pressure through rising prices and shrinking margins.
Globally, China’s economy is projected to grow by 4.7%, driven by industrial recovery and domestic stimulus. The eurozone, despite persistent inflation, is expected to expand by 1.1%, supported by improved export performance and energy market stability. These gains, however, are uneven and may be temporary, especially as global trade adjusts to new tariff regimes and shifting supply chains.
Fitch warns that the world economy remains vulnerable to policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and inflation volatility. While the headline figures suggest resilience, the underlying dynamics point to a fragile recovery, with risks concentrated in consumer sectors, energy markets, and emerging economies.
This evolving landscape demands close attention from investors, policymakers, and publishers alike. The balance between short-term stimulus and long-term sustainability will define the trajectory of global growth in the months ahead.