Germany’s top intelligence officials have issued a stark warning that Russia may be preparing a new wave of hybrid provocations aimed at destabilizing NATO’s eastern members, particularly in the Baltic states.
The alert comes amid a surge in covert operations, cyberattacks, and sabotage attempts that Berlin believes are designed to test the alliance’s unity and readiness without triggering a direct military response.
According to the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Russian operatives have been increasingly active in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, using tactics that include disinformation campaigns, arson, and the deployment of so-called “little green men”—unmarked personnel who blend into local populations to carry out subversive acts.
These methods mirror the early stages of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and are seen as part of a broader strategy to undermine NATO’s credibility and sow discord among member states.
Recent incidents include the sabotage of undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks on Polish and Estonian government systems, and the use of fake social media accounts to influence elections in Romania.
In one particularly brazen case, Latvian authorities reported that Russian agents had posed as tourists to gather intelligence on critical infrastructure.
Germany’s Defense Minister has called for enhanced coordination among NATO allies, urging the alliance to move beyond passive deterrence and adopt a more assertive posture.
“We are witnessing a deliberate campaign to destabilize our eastern partners,” she said. “This is not just espionage—it’s a calculated effort to erode democratic institutions and fracture our collective defense.”
NATO has responded by increasing surveillance and deploying rapid-response cyber units to vulnerable regions. The alliance’s new “deterrence by denial” strategy emphasizes early detection and disruption of hybrid threats before they escalate.
Poland, now spending over 4% of its GDP on defense, has emerged as a key player in this effort, hosting multinational battlegroups and investing heavily in maritime and cyber defense.
Analysts warn that Russia’s hybrid tactics are designed to remain just below the threshold of open conflict, making them difficult to counter without risking escalation.
However, the growing frequency and sophistication of these attacks suggest that the Kremlin is testing NATO’s resolve—and may be preparing for more aggressive moves if it perceives weakness or division.